Norwegian UN Ambassador Discussion

They couldn't have chosen a more gorgeous building for tonight's Global Leaders Lecture.

Who knew that the Norwegian Ambassador knew so much about Israeli, Iranian, and Syrian politics? H.E. Geir O. Pedersen, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Norway to the United Nations, gave a remarkably in-depth overview of the three hot spots in the Middle East. Please excuse any typos or brevity from these notes.

"Obama was not prepared for Camp David negotiations. Summer of 2000. The negotiation was basically that 25-50,000 first generation Palestinians in Lebanon would be placed in the northern part of Israel.

I absolutely believe that the two parties, if left to themselves, will fail. Usually if you take the side of the pessimist, you will be proven right. So if I say we are nearing a peace agreement, I would look stupid. 

We could be moving more towards another Camp David failure. Americans will have to come up like in 2000 with a proposal like Clinton did. Israel should annex Area C. If there is an agreement, it will be a referendum. You will need a 2-state solution for a Jewish democracy. The current leader has the intellectual capacity to arrive at a solution. But I fear it will become another crusade: it will exist for about 100 years & then go up for dispute. What will an agreement look like? The refugees will have to accept that there is no right to return. Bigger issue is Jerusalem. If we don't reach an agreement, it will be because of Jerusalem. Holy land: incredibly difficult. 'If Jerusalem is not part of the deal, the Arabs will not consider it a solution.' I agree. 'Coexistence is you're stuck together. 2-state system is the only solution, but what is negotiable is quality. As long as we ignore the fundamentals, we won't be solving the underlying issue.' *****There is never such a time as a perfect situation for a solution.**** A lot of Israelis are nervous because of what's going on in Iran. Big notion that Muslim brotherhood has weakened, ***but there's never a better time for an Arab breakthrough than this time. 'Iran's nuclear system has brought countries together.' If there is a deal that Israel doesn't see as a requirement, it will definitely complicate the situation. If we don't come to an agreement on the Iranian fight, we likely won't see a deal. I'm not talking about a matter of months, but a matter of weeks. Whatever you do, you need a deal that you can  verify . Sanctions have been working. Are the Iranians serious? Only a negotiation will tell. They are extremely skilled negotiators. You need a deep knowledge of the situation, but you need a good confidence in yourself, & if the US can do it, we'll see. 'facilities that produce petroleum.' Do you accept a 3% enrichment or do you not. 'Iranians brought this upon themselves.' Absolutely. Issue of trust..  Watching Iranians do what they have done for so long... Iranians cannot develop the bomb. They don't have the capacity to do it. Major reluctance from Saudi & Israeli side to negotiate. Error. Either you have a bomb, or negotiation situation. You either negotiate or end up with a war. Only a matter of months. Is it urgent to sit down and negotiate? Absolutely. Trust with Israelis: do Americans have the capacity to deliver what they say they will. Is there a possibility that the Iranians will play games? There's always that risk. Why negotiations are critical. Will the Iranians follow through? If I knew that I would win a Nobel Peace Prize. I think you should test them.

'Let's go to the easier question of Syria. 300,000 injured. It is a disaster.' I met Assad in 2011, & I've never met such an arrogant leader. It was a good thing to get rid of his other leaders in the gulf leader. He was well liked, & he rode on that. Regime was based on a coalition of minorities that perhaps at the time was supported by most of the people. We don't know. Even the people didn't believe the stories. They thought it was American propaganda coming out. Minorities were basically siting on the fence. They didn't want to go out & make a mistake. Qataris supporting the different groups, weakening of the seculars, but a strengthening of Alqaida. Don't want to sit in Geneva to negotiations. Why did they do that? The Americans said if you don't, you can forget any sort of support. Ban Ki-Moon is considering going to Geneva in November. Who will show up? My feeling is that if it happens, it may not do anything. If the Americans don't sit down with Saudis, Turkish, & force a compromise. If not, we'll end up with Alkaida & the terrorists. The window we have for doing this is only a few months. Otherwise we'll be there for 10-15 years. Too late to go for a situation where Assad will be at the table. Hardly any more brutal leaders than Assad. He's too strong. Then you'll have to deal with the devil. 'Do you think the Americans did well?' How long do we have? Even off the record, I won't describe... 'US has to play much larger role.' Yeah. 'Shouldn't you strengthen the rebels?' If I were an American diplomat, that would have been my position. Very few good guys. But the ones we want to see strengthened, they do not get the support. 'Russians want to stay there & they have a great deal to loose if another government shows up.' I think we're very close that that narrative will be proven right. Iranians position in Syria is much weaker than in March 2011. Polar position in Lebanon has weakened Iranian politics. Want to sacrifice Assad. My position is that no shot of success in Geneva if Iranians are not on board, same with the Saudis.

Question from the audience: "I really questioned how you seemed to blame Israel for everything. Then I said, oh yeah he's from Norway." Your observation is correct. It's about Israel's right to exist from the American narrative, whereas to Palestinians it's that Israel should give up the West Bank. Territory: Israel will have to give 98% of West Bank & Jerusalem: Jewish villages & slums will go to Israel, & Palestinian will go to P. Big question is holy places & Temple of Amman. Let me be careful, but my position is that Natinyaho is not informed & was surprised. Americans really heavily leaned on him. 550,000 Israelis currently living in West Bank. Every Israeli Prime Minister has continued this. Not just am issue of Natinyahu. In Europe we are not so clever as in the United State to integrate new immigrants. If you are a Pro-Palestinian, you'll have to deal with these issues. The U.S. must come to the party. If I gave this lecture in Europe, by the way, I would have had at least 15 comments asking me why I wasn't more pro-Palestine." Note: all 'sub quotes' are comments made by Join Ben-Meir, the moderator for tonight's discussion.